Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-120).

Pros

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 10.0 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.6% to 69.9%.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a mere 7.20 yards-per-target compared to a 8.33 rate last season.
The Detroit Lions O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards