Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 245.5 yards (+105/-140).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 245.5 (-140) after it opened @ 249.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 35.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards