Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Chargers vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 65.5 (+105) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to notch 8.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 132.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
