Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-120).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to accumulate 8.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Brandin Cooks has been a key part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 28.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
Brandin Cooks has notched a monstrous 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among WRs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 10th-least total plays on the slate this week with 59.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 59.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards