Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 171.5 yards (-109/-125).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 171.5 (-125) after it opened @ 182.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing QBs have thrown for the 9th-most yards in the league (247.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans pass defense has shown poor efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 8.42 yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the NFL.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 7th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
151
Passing Yards