Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bears vs. Texans
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 44.5 (-130) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- Darnell Mooney has run a route on 93.1% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- Darnell Mooney has accumulated a monstrous 83.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among wideouts.
- Darnell Mooney has been among the leading WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 54.0 yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
- The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (165.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed weak efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 9.33 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 7th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per play.
- The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
