Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bears vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-110).
Pros
- The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to accumulate 15.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has earned 59.1% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most yards in football (135 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season.
- The Chicago Bears linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 10th-least total plays on the slate this week with 59.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 59.7 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
