Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery from EV Insight

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-135/+100).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 69.5 (-135) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).

Pros

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 19.1 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 7th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this week (55.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (71.8% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards