Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bears vs. Texans
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-135/+100).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 69.5 (-135) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 19.1 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 7th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this week (55.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (71.8% in games he has played).
- The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
