Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to notch 6.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to be a more important option in his offense’s pass game this week (27.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.7% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Amari Cooper’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 7.39 yards-per-target compared to a 9.76 mark last year.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
