Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- David Njoku has notched a monstrous 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- David Njoku’s 25.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 79th percentile for tight ends.
Cons
- The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- David Njoku’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.4% to 66.9%.
- David Njoku’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 6.91 yards-per-target compared to a 8.14 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
