Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 5.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 14.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth has totaled a colossal 31.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Pat Freiermuth’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 58.5%.
- Pat Freiermuth has been among the weakest tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 4.01 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 20th percentile.
- The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
