Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mitchell TrubiskyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Mitchell Trubisky’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 190.5 (-130) after it opened @ 207.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.9 plays per game.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Mitchell Trubisky has attempted a measly 10.0 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 5th percentile among QBs.
- Mitchell Trubisky has been among the bottom QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging 53.0 yards per game while checking in at the 5th percentile.
- Mitchell Trubisky has been among the worst per-play quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a lowly 5.33 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 6th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
187
Passing Yards
187
Passing Yards
