Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a heavy 10-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Aaron Jones has earned 48.9% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Aaron Jones has generated 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (82nd percentile).
Aaron Jones’s running efficiency (4.83 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (84th percentile among running backs).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-least run-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 34.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards