NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 18.5 (-120) after it opened @ 20.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
- Mike Gesicki has accumulated a monstrous 53.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
- Mike Gesicki has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 40.0 yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a less important option in his offense’s passing game this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).
- The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Mike Gesicki has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.01 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 6th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
