NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accrue 14.8 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- David Montgomery has generated 62.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).
- The Green Bay Packers defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up 4.83 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Bears are an enormous 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game this week (54.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (71.6% in games he has played).
- The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
