Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery from EV Insight

David Montgomery

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 2

Packers vs. Bears

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).


  • The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accrue 14.8 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
  • David Montgomery has generated 62.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).
  • The Green Bay Packers defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up 4.83 yards-per-carry.

  • The Bears are an enormous 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game this week (54.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (71.6% in games he has played).
  • The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Rushing Yards

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