Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accrue 14.8 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has generated 62.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).
The Green Bay Packers defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up 4.83 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Bears are an enormous 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game this week (54.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (71.6% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards