NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 24.5 (-103) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions this week.
- David Njoku has notched a whopping 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among TEs.
- David Njoku’s 25.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for tight ends.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Cons
- The Browns are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
