Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a giant 10-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to accumulate 10.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among WRs.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Brandin Cooks’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.2% to 56.4%.
Brandin Cooks’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, notching a mere 5.86 yards-per-target compared to a 7.86 rate last season.
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 140.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards