Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 246.5 (-110) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 65.2% to 68.3%.
Russell Wilson has been among the best per-play passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 8.13 yards-per-target while ranking in the 88th percentile.
Opposing teams have passed for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (248.0 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed poor efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 8.46 yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in the league.

Cons

The Broncos are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 33.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Houston Texans defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.67 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards