Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Thursday brings us a spectacular matchup between two Super Bowl hopefuls, the Chiefs and the Chargers. Coming in with some of the most offseason hype in the league, people are expecting offense in this matchup between two titans. Justin Herbert vs. Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterback duels we can get, so I’m excited to see this one go down.
Let’s take a look at my favorite bets for Thursday’s game.
Travis Kelce Over 60 Receiving Yards
Gerald Everett Over 25 Receiving Yards
Same-Game Parlay: -120, FanDuel Sportsbook
Something about a primetime football game really gets me in the mood to bet tight ends. Let’s start out with Travis Kelce, who is pound-for-pound the best offensive tight end in football. While I was originally planning out just betting his regular receiving yards, I’m going to roll with this combo as a same-game parlay, then sprinkle “over 100 yards” at +205. Kelce started Week 1 doing what he always does, dominating. He recorded 8 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown, mostly in the first three quarters, considering the Chiefs blew out the Cardinals. While Tyreek Hill may not be in town anymore, this team is clearly finding creative ways to keep Kelce involved. They constantly used him both in the slot, and out wide, as both a decoy and a matchup nightmare.
This offense is built around getting Kelce the ball, and he also happens to have great matchup history against the Chargers. Over his last two seasons, he has put up:
- 10-191-2 (13 targets)
- 7-104-0 (11 targets)
- 9-90-1 (14 targets)
These are absolutely dominant numbers, especially against in an important division game against a team like the Chargers. This is the highest total on the Week 2 slate, currently at 54.5 — sparks are going to fly, and I expect the Chiefs TE to be the centerpiece.
Now let’s talk about the opposing tight end, Gerald Everett. With Keenan Allen out with a hamstring injury, most are expecting a Mike Williams explosion game. While I understand the hype, I think the Chiefs defense keys in on the outside receiver, seeing plenty of safety help on his routes. That said, I like some of the other weapons in this offense like Joshua Palmer and Everett, who should have much better matchups. Everett got involved in Week 1, grabbing 3 catches for 54 yards with a touchdown, on 4 targets. Not only was he running more traditional routes closer to the line of scrimmage, he was also getting down field, which is definitely good to see in a Justin Herbert lead offense. I wanted exposure to both of these players this week, I think this is the best way to go about it.
