College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Texans
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 226.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 226.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a giant 10-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 36.9 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Davis Mills has been among the weakest QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 200.0 yards per game while ranking in the 25th percentile.
- Davis Mills’s throwing accuracy has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 60.4%.
- Davis Mills has been among the worst per-play passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 6.50 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 22nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards
251
Passing Yards
