College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 46.5 (-115) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a big 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to total 8.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.2 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Kyle Pitts’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 24.4%.
- Kyle Pitts’s pass-catching efficiency has diminished this year, compiling just 2.37 yards-per-target vs a 8.66 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
