Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. Falcons
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 275.5 (-110) after it opened @ 276.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.2 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Rams are a big 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 61.4 plays per game.
- Matthew Stafford’s passing efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating a mere 6.10 yards-per-target vs a 7.65 mark last year.
- The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
307
Passing Yards
307
Passing Yards
