Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to total 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
- DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 27.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
- DK Metcalf has totaled a whopping 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
- DK Metcalf has been among the top pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 57.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
