Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to notch 8.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 27.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Tyreek Hill’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.7% to 65.4%.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards