Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards prop is set at 197.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 197.5 (+110) after it opened @ 192.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions this week.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the league vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (73.9%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has shown bad efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 8.82 yards-per-target: the most in the league.
Cons
- The Browns are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 27.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
- Jacoby Brissett has been among the bottom QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging 128.0 yards per game while grading out in the 8th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
189
Passing Yards
189
Passing Yards
