Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe FlaccoPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 218.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 218.5 (-135) after it opened @ 232.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 6-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New York Jets O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
- The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Joe Flacco’s throwing effectiveness has worsened this season, notching just 5.80 yards-per-target compared to a 8.20 rate last season.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 220.0 per game) against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards
214
Passing Yards
