Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 19.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Tyler Conklin has notched a monstrous 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among tight ends.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New York Jets offensive line has afforded their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 60.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to be a much smaller part of his team’s pass attack this week (9.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.2% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.6%) to TEs since the start of last season (67.6%).
The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards