Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Seahawks vs. Broncos
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 210.5 (-101) after it opened @ 204.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Geno Smith has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a terrific 68.8% Completion%, grading out in the 84th percentile.
- The Denver Broncos defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.34 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in the league.
- The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 33.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
