Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chargers vs. Raiders
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 273.5 (-137) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 39.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.
- The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 9th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on just 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
330
Passing Yards
330
Passing Yards
