Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chargers vs. Raiders
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 69.5 (-104) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Keenan Allen to total 9.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- Keenan Allen has been among the weakest wide receivers in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 16th percentile.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 121.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, yielding 7.34 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends project as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
