NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Lions vs. Eagles
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 47.5 (-142) after it opened @ 51.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-most run-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Andre Swift to notch 12.0 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- D’Andre Swift has garnered 50.3% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst DT corps in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
- The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- D’Andre Swift’s rushing efficiency (3.74 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (20th percentile among running backs).
- D’Andre Swift has been among the bottom running backs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.40 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 10th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
