Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Lions vs. Eagles
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 244.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Jared Goff has attempted 37.3 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 79th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (74.3%).
- The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
260
Passing Yards
260
Passing Yards
