Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Lions vs. Eagles
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 225.5 (-133) after it opened @ 230.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.90 seconds before the pass (best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 28.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
- Jalen Hurts has been among the least on-target passers in the NFL since the start of last season with a 59.6% Completion%, checking in at the 10th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards
237
Passing Yards
