Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Lions vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to accrue 4.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
