Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Elijah MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Ravens
Right now, Elijah Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Elijah Moore to garner 7.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The New York Jets offensive line has afforded their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 60.4 plays per game.
- Elijah Moore has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing just 58.2% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 15th percentile among WRs
- Elijah Moore has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a lowly 7.34 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 19th percentile among wideouts
- The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
