Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Ravens
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 61.5 (-115) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accumulate 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
- Mark Andrews has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 26.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The New York Jets linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Mark Andrews has been among the weakest tight ends in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 24th percentile.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
