Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bears vs. 49ers
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 56.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 14.3 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- David Montgomery has averaged 65.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (95th percentile).
- The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Chicago Bears have risked going for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be much less involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (51.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (74.1% in games he has played).
- The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
