Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bears vs. 49ers
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 29.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 5.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has put up a colossal 44.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet’s 38.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 90th percentile for TEs.
- The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
