Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to garner 12.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-least run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.9% run rate.
- Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends project as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
