Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Carson Wentz from EV Insight

Carson WentzPassing Yards

Right now, Carson Wentz’s passing yards prop is set at 227.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 227.5 (-129) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks profile as the 8th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Washington Commanders offensive line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.58 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
243
Passing Yards