Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 92.5 (-110) after it opened @ 99.5 (-115).

Pros

The Colts are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Colts have been the 7th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 40.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to earn 19.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
101
Rushing Yards