Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matt RyanPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 235.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-135).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed bad efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 8.63 yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in football.
- The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
Cons
- The Colts are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Colts have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
- The Houston Texans defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.63 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
