Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Damien Harris from EV Insight

Damien HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Damien Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 45.5 (-129) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots have been the 8th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 39.7% run rate.
Damien Harris has garnered 52.1% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Damien Harris has generated 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (90th percentile).
Damien Harris’s rushing effectiveness (4.66 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (80th percentile among running backs).

Cons

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends project as the 5th-best DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards