Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Thomas from EV Insight

Michael ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 44.5 (-115) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to total 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 6th-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has given their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.9 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards