Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 16.4 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris has averaged 63.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (92nd percentile).
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive ends grade out as the 9th-worst collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Cons

The Steelers are a giant 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be much less involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (66.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (78.8% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Opposing squads have run for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 102 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards