Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 71.5 (-115) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).

Pros

Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 96.2% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to garner 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Ja’Marr Chase has compiled a whopping 109.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among WRs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards