Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Rams vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 128.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to earn 10.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has shown strong efficiency against WRs since the start of last season, giving up 7.39 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.
- The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Receiving Yards
85
Receiving Yards
