Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The NBA season rolls onward with a six-game slate tonight. We have two matchups between teams poised to make deep postseason runs, two matchups between interesting members of the league’s middle class, and to be perfectly honest, two games that are kind of a mess. It’s a mostly appetizing spread of everything the league has to offer, which means there’s a lot to watch and even more opportunities to bet.
Let’s go through each game, see what might happen and try to find some wagers worth our money. Of course, since it’s Monday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions or comments to share, please put them in the comment section of the video and I’ll get back to you. Now, on to the hoops!
Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets
Current Line – Nets -9.5, 208
My Projection – Nets 106, Grizzlies 100
Key Injuries – Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and Cam Thomas are out. Jaren Jackson is doubtful.
The Brooklyn Nets are a bit of an enigma. They came back from All-Star break with a new coach and a lot of positivity in press conferences but proceeded to lose their first two games by 25+ points. Then they beat the Memphis Grizzlies by 25, lost to the Orlando Magic by 27 points and won both games of a two-game series against the Atlanta Hawks by 27 points and 12 points. So, I guess we just bet some 25+ point alternate spreads?
The Nets have several talented players, but not stars, and mostly guys who seem to be preparing for a future elsewhere. That creates an odd dynamic where some players are playing their hardest knowing their next contract depends on it, but they tend to hog the ball and make it worse for the rest of the roster. Other players look disinterested and are trying not to get hurt while they run the clock out on the season. This makes them a hard team to handicap game to game, and we’ll see some large margins of victory or defeat, but definitely a team I’m looking to bet against for their last 22 games.
I realize you’re probably asking yourself why I’d be betting against a team I just said was hard to handicap and beat this same Grizzlies team by 25 a week ago, but that’s what I’m doing. I know that I’ve written many times about how bad the Memphis roster is without everyone listed above, but they’ve found a few lineups that work for them and always have a smart game plan to go with a high level of effort. Memphis is a smart organization that knows how to grow talent they’ve drafted into NBA quality players and teach them how to play winning basketball.
Players on the team know they have a chance to be part of a winning team next year and still follow coach Taylor Jenkins’s orders. My projections make this just a six-point game, and we have a chance to take more than nine points. With such a low total, every point is worth more than normal. It’s going to be hard for any team to win this game by double-digits. The Grizzlies are less talented, but they have the same number of star players as the Nets (0) and have much better structure. Sometimes in betting, you have to eat the stinky cheese. So, hold your nose, and take a big bite of Memphis Grizzlies +9.5.
Bets
Memphis Grizzlies (+9.5, -110, BetMGM)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks -5.5, 226.5 – This is a tough spot for each team. This is the third game in four nights and the second game in two nights for the Clippers. The Bucks are missing Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as questionable. The books have made Milwaukee almost two-basket favorites, which tells me Giannis is likely to play tonight or maybe some of the Clippers’ best players will rest, but we don’t know that for certain. Giannis could miss the game and Los Angeles could throw caution to wind and play everyone and win by double-digits. Giannis could play and the Clippers could rest everyone and lose by double-digits. There’s just too much unknown to bet on this game right now. Once there is a final injury report, there might be value in the betting markets, but we just don’t know.
Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves -14, 210.5 – Minnesota played last night at home and lost to the Clippers in a tough, low-scoring affair. Anthony Edwards was questionable before that game but played. He’s questionable again tonight and I expect him to rest against a team the Timberwolves can beat easily without him. Portland is without a point guard thanks to injuries and has struggled to score even when Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson are playing. The Timberwolves have the best defense in the NBA and can easily keep the Trail Blazers from scoring 90 points let alone 100. Unfortunately, it seems the market already knows this and has set the total very low and the spread very high. That means there’s no value in even playing a Portland team total under, let alone the spread or full game total. There’s no value in these prices, so there’s no bets to be made.
Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz -6, 240 – These prices are within a point or two of my projections. I make this game Jazz -5 with a total of 238.5. Both teams have been losing games in bunches, but they also have some interesting young players who might be a part of their futures. The Jazz are without Lauri Markkanen tonight which makes things even more difficult, but they still have a better overall roster than the Wizards. I have backed Washington a few times over the last couple of weeks but at double-digit spreads. This will be a game I watch to see Bilal Coulibaly, Deni Avdija, Keyonte George and other young guys, but I’m not going to be betting on it.
Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings -6.5, 227.5 – De’Aaron Fox is questionable which limits the Kings, but they still deserve to be solid favorites over the Bulls. Sacramento is rested and at home where they play their best basketball. Domantas Sabonis will be the best player on the floor and Keegan Murray could be the second best. That said, Sacramento has struggled this season and last without Fox, who unlocks their full potential. Chicago has a solid team and can keep any game close, but I’d need a few more points to bet on them tonight. In a lot of ways, this game is a better version of the last matchup where both of these teams are likely to finish in the Play-In Tournament and could make the playoffs but will likely end their season in the first round if they get there. I make the spread 5 and the total 226 which puts me close to the market, and I don’t see any matchup angle to attack. I’ll pass on this game.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers -1, 238.5 – The Thunder played a tough game in Phoenix last night and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played 38 minutes. The Lakers had Sunday off and have been at home for almost a week. That’s a big rest advantage for Los Angeles. LeBron James is listed as questionable, but I expect him to play. If that’s the case, I make this game Thunder -1.5 which isn’t a big enough edge to bet, and going across 0 makes the edge even smaller. Oklahoma City has the better roster, but the Lakers have beaten them twice this season in the previous three matchups. Los Angeles has size at every position and plays a physical style that does well against Oklahoma City. It’s going to be a great game, but not one that I’ll be betting.
