NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The 2023-24 College Basketball season is winding down, and we now enter conference tournament season. Teams compete for a conference championship in a single-elimination tournament to realize their dreams and earn a coveted automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Below is my preview for the Horizon League Tournament. Let’s have some fun.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Favorites
Youngstown State
+195
In a league where defense seems to be optional and zone is everyone’s preference, coach Jarrod Calhoun’s Penguins earned their 14-6 Horizon League record and No. 2 seed line through their stout man-to-man defense, being the only team in the Horizon League ending the year ranking 145th or better in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Youngstown State owns the league’s best 2pt FG% defense anchored by 7-foot freshman Gabe Dynes, who sports a ridiculous 18% block rate. On offense, the Penguins run a cut and fill motion offense but lean a ton on their speedy guards Brett Thompson and Bryson Langdon to get out and score in transition, owning the fastest tempo in the conference (95th nationally, per Kenpom). Swing man Ziggy Reid and double-double machine DJ Burns both provide matchup problems offensively and fit perfectly into Calhoun’s motion-based offense. The knock on the Penguins this year could be their lack of size in the backcourt and a potential second-round matchup with Cleveland State, who has great positional size between Tristan Enaruna and Tae Williams.
Oakland 20-11
+240
Coaching legend Greg Kampe has done it again, leading the Grizzlies to a regular-season Horizon League championship and a No. 1 seed in the conference tournament after being picked sixth in the preseason poll. Oakland is known for its patented extended 2-3 zone which gives up a ton of looks from three (303rd in 3pt FGA defense) and is very susceptible to teams that can move the ball well (360th in A/FGM defense). Yet, similar to the old Jim Boeheim Syracuse teams, the zone can be hard to crack, as it discourages the dribble drive and forces teams to settle for contested threes. On offense, the Grizzlies are led by matchup nightmare Trey Townsend on the block, who averages 17 ppg, and there isn’t a defender in the whole league who can guard him one-on-one. In order to cut down the nets, Oakland really needs to get significant contributions from ex-Michigan State Spartan Rocket Watts in the backcourt, who has been inconsistent at best throughout his career and has been dealing with a slew of injuries.
Sleeper
Wright State
+320
It’s hard to call Wright State a sleeper, as most will want to back the most explosive offensive trio in the conference consisting of scoring machine Trey Calvin (19.6 ppg), ex-Ohio State Buckeye Tanner Holden (16 ppg) and last year’s Horizon League freshman of the year Brandon Noel (14.7 ppg). The dynamic trio has led Wright State to rank 31st in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Of course, where the wheels fall off for Scott Nagy’s Raiders is defensively where they can’t guard a paper bag, ranking a mere 343rd nationally in defensive efficiency. Wright State especially cannot defend the rim, giving up layup lines all year to their opponents, who shoot 55% from inside the arc. If Wright State can somehow turn up the screws and find some assemblage of defense in the tournament setting, this offense is explosive enough to get hot and outscore any team in the league on their way to a Horizon League championship.
Long Shot
Milwaukee
+2200
Milwaukee came into the year with very high expectations and slotted No. 2 in the preseason coaches poll behind defending champs Northern Kentucky. The season hasn’t gone as expected for second-year coach Bart Lundy and company, as the Panthers barely finished over .500 with a 17-14 record and 12-8 in Horizon League play. Their struggles mainly occurred on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 318th in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and on the glass where the Panther defense really bails out for blocks and leaves the weak side open for easy putbacks, ranking 343rd nationally in defensive rebounding %. Yet, the conference tournament is a clean slate, and Milwaukee has one of the best players in BJ Freeman, who averages over 20 ppg. The Panthers are getting hot at the right time, winning five out of their last six and riding a three-game winning streak, including a 21-point blowout of potential second-round matchup Green Bay. Green Bay is without their leader and best player Noah Reynolds, thus the path to the semis looks pretty good for the Panthers to make them worth a shot at this price.
