NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
After an incredible regular season, college basketball is entering the glorious month of March. The NCAA Tournament is just over two weeks away, and we will once again be filled with dominant programs, great individual performances and dangerous mid-major underdogs.
First, however, we are truly blessed with college basketball’s conference tournament season!
The Sun Belt Conference always provides one of the most exciting end-of-season tournaments, and joins the Horizon League, Patriot League and Atlantic Sun Conference tournaments as the first four postseason competitions.
Appalachian State edged out James Madison for the regular-season title, finishing with a 16-2 record. The Mountaineers are looking for their second trip to the NCAA Tournament during Dustin Kerns’ five-year tenure.
The Sun Belt Conference plays all of their tournament games at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida. There are two opening-round games on Tuesday, March 5, two second-round games on Thursday, March 7 and then three straight days starting on March 9 until a champion is crowned.
The Sun Belt Conference Tournament consists of all 14 teams. The games are played over a six-day period, with the eventual champion earning their automatic bid next Monday, March 11. The top-4 seeds (Appalachian State, James Madison, Troy,, Arkansas State) all get the favorable double-bye into the quarterfinals.
2024 NCAA Tournament Betting Previews
Sun Belt Tournament Bracket
Sun Belt Tournament History
Georgia State has seen much success in recent years, reaching the tournament finals the past four seasons prior to last year. The Panthers enter this tournament as the 7 seed in the second year under head coach Jonas Hayes.
Besides earning the top overall seed, Appalachian State has also gone 19-11 ATS, which ranks 24th-best in the nation, but only second-best in the Sun Belt. The Troy Trojans are 18-9-1 ATS, 11th-best nationally. The worst team ATS in conference? Marshall with a 11-19 ATS record, who has failed to cover its last seven contests.
Sun Belt Tournament Odds & Betting Breakdown
(All Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Defending Champion
Louisiana (No. 5 Seed)
Odds: +1200
Louisiana knows how to make a run in this tournament, defeating South Alabama (71-66) last year, and losing in the finals to Georgia State (80-71) in 2022. There is a lot to like about this team, but it ended the season losing four of its final five games. Prior to that, however, the Cajuns won nine of 10 matchups, showing their experience and upside. Louisiana is great at forcing turnovers and defending the arc but can struggle on offense and on the boards. Head coach Bob Marlin is in his 14th season and has taken Louisiana to the NCAA Tournament twice, but can the Cajuns beat the top teams in the Sun Belt? They were swept by Troy, lost their only matchups with Appalachian State and JMU, and also Southern Mississippi (with Austin Crowley and Andre Curbelo). Their potential quarterfinal matchup with No. 4 seed Arkansas State (who they swept) will also be very difficult.
Best Value
Appalachian State (No. 1 Seed)
Odds: +180
The top seed is also the best value.
Vegas made a mistake putting James Madison as the favorite. Appalachian State is a better all-around team and beat the Dukes twice this season. You cannot score at the rim on the Mountaineers, who rank first within conference play in effective field goal percentage, 2P percentage allowed and block percentage (KenPom). The Mountaineers also dominate the boards and shoot the 3P well (35.1%) in the Sun Belt. Their biggest weakness is free-throw shooting (67.7%), but they also have the conference’s best individual win in a 69-64 home upset over Auburn.
Momentum Play
James Madison (No. 2 Seed)
Odds: +120
I have no interest in betting the Dukes to win this tournament. I hate their odds and honestly? I don’t think they are winning.
Head coach Mark Byington has assembled a roster full of talent, led by Terrence Edwards (17.6 PPG) and Boston College transfer T.J. Bickerstaff (13.9 PPG). The problem is they have no discipline. They take rushed shots and unnecessary risks on the fast break. James Madison lost both games to Appalachian State and never played No. 3 seed Troy. They had the easiest conference strength of schedule of any Sun Belt team. In conference tournament season, the game slows down, which is not where the Dukes excel. I cannot see them defeating Troy and Appalachian State on consecutive nights. Their best bet is if the Mountaineers get upset before the finals.
The Long Shot
Arkansas State (No. 4 Seed)
Odds: +800
If Arkansas State finds a way to solve Louisiana, watch out.
The Red Wolves are led by Bryan Hodgson, an Alabama-disciple from the Nate Oats coaching tree. Their only losses since late January were at home to James Madison by four points and at Appalachian State in the last game. They guard well inside the arc, but struggle against the 3P. They allowed conference opponents to scorch the net at a 37.2% rate (worst in Sun Belt), but will that matter as much on a neutral court in Pensacola? They are the perfect high-variance team to bet as a long shot, with 44% of their shots coming from deep (most in conference). In short? Arkansas State shoots the 3P well, doesn’t turn it over, plays great defense inside the arc defense and is strong on the offensive boards. A very dangerous team.
Heart Over Head
Troy (No. 3 Seed)
Odds: +500
Head coach Scott Cross is one of college basketball’s most underrated coaches. Troy was in position to win the regular-season title, sitting at 10-2 on Feb. 7. The Trojans have the best balance in the Sun Belt, ranking third in both offense and defense within the conference. They are relentless with full-court pressure, ranking first in defensive turnover percentage and held opponents to under 47% from inside the arc for the second-straight season. Assuming they can beat Southern Mississippi (not easy), they would have a distinct advantage having not played James Madison this season. Their pressure and relentless offensive rebounding prowess are tough to simulate in practice. They lost 75-72 to James Madison in last year’s conference tournament and are a much-better offensive team this year. Cross has been so darn good against the spread (S.C.C.), that they would be an automatic pick against the Dukes regardless. Can they win three games in three days if they have to face James Madison and Appalachian State? My heart (sadly) tells me no, but any other path could put the Trojans in the Big Dance.
The Long, Long Shot
Southern Mississippi (No. 6 Seed)
Odds: +7000
Will this team be fully healthy? It is likely that leading-scorer Austin Crowley (16 PPG) sat out their regular-season finale as a precaution, and point guard Andre Curbelo (13.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.5 APG) is back and playing very well. The key is if 6-foot-6 forward Donovan Ivory (13.1 PPG, 41% 3P range) can return. He suffered a foot injury when he stepped on a teammate’s foot in shootaround and has missed the last six games. His return would make the Golden Eagles my favorite Sun Belt Tournament bet. Southern Miss beat James Madison at home while only shooting 4-of-15 (26.7%) from 3P range and beat Troy at home without Curbelo. Playing Troy and James Madison on consecutive days would be tough without Ivory, but if he’s healthy, this team is very live.
